Economic Expertise Meets Political Power: Mark Carney's Unlikely Rise to Prime Minister

From Underdogs to Champions: The Liberals' Stunning Comeback.

Call it what it is – an extraordinary turnaround for the Liberals. My outside-in take is that the Liberal party, which only months ago was trailing in the polls by double digits, has now, led by the prime minister—a former banker who until months ago had no political experience—won a fourth term in office. Donald Trump, a person whose name wasn't on the ballot, transformed Canada's political landscape as we know it.

The Economist Turned Prime Minister Ready to Lead Canada Forward.

Mark Carney understands the importance of leading for every Canadian. I'm optimistic that he will stand strong against Trump and advocate for our nation's interests. With an undergraduate degree from Harvard University, a doctorate in economics from Oxford University, and experience handling economic crises in Europe, Carney is well-equipped to navigate our economy. He knows the key levers—capital investment, labor, trade, energy, and productivity—that drive economic growth. Carney also brings a wealth of experience from his roles as Governor of the Bank of Canada and England, and his work with Brookfield Asset Management. His global influence and relationships could mark a significant improvement over previous leadership.

Carney's private sector leadership experience could be invaluable in negotiating better trade deals and managing international relations, especially amid recent tensions with the U.S. But, as I remind myself regularly, it's more than just economics, and the good news is the Liberal Party's platform includes progressive social policies aimed at improving healthcare, education, and social welfare—crucial areas for a well-functioning country.

It's not going to be plain sailing, and the energy file will be a balancing act. Carney recognizes that governing requires compromise. Despite his past views on oil and gas, he ‘says’ he aims to strike a balance between energy sustainability, affordability, and security. He supported reducing the carbon tax to zero and has shown backing for projects like Cedar LNG on the West Coast. Carney's collaborative approach with the industry may signal a shift away from strict emissions caps.

What’s also encouraging is that Carney has promised faster review times for energy and resource projects, aiming to make decisions within two years. By consolidating government processes into one window and creating a major federal project office, he envisions Canada as an oil and gas and clean energy superpower. This could if he means what he says, pave the way for new crude oil pipelines Noth, West and East, and initiatives like Pathways for carbon sequestration.

Given his global push for energy transition, net zero, and climate action, it’s no surprise that Carney plans to jumpstart the clean energy supply chain by investing in critical minerals and fast-tracking clean energy projects across Canada. This includes incentivizing projects of national interest and supporting carbon contracts for difference. This could be good for Canada and propel us to leadership status.

Finaly, we also have a major housing crisis in this country, and Carney has big and important plans in play. To address housing needs, Carney plans to double the pace of home building by creating a standalone agency called Build Canada Homes (BCH). This initiative will cost about $3 billion annually over the next four years and aims to double the number of homes built annually in Canada to nearly 500,000.

However, there are looming challenges that will need to be overcome.

The problem is minority governments don’t last. This type of win demands compromise, making it tough to drive major policy outcomes. This can lead to legislative gridlock and political instability, resulting in a short-lived government. Carney's plans to tackle U.S. tariffs and economic threats from President Trump will require strong and decisive action. A minority government might struggle to respond effectively to these challenges.

Also, Carney has pledged $130 billion in new spending over four years, adding $225 billion to the federal debt and further straining the country's finances. This level of debt surpasses that of the Trudeau government, with no apparent desire to balance the books. In addition, transitioning to a green economy comes with significant costs for Canada and Alberta. This shift impacts jobs, the cost of living, inflation, and more. The question remains: at what price are we willing to pursue a sustainable future?

The other challenge is that productivity issues persist. The Business Council of Canada has raised serious concerns about Canada's declining economic performance, particularly in terms of per capita GDP growth. They argue that Canada is projected to be an embarrassing "dead last" among OECD countries in per capita economic growth over the coming decades.

Furthermore, the growing regulatory burden holds us back on all fronts. Excessive regulation imposes costs on businesses and deters investment in key sectors of Canada's economy. According to the Fraser Institute between 2006 and 2018, the number of restrictive regulations grew from about 66,000 to 72,000. National regulatory reform could encourage investment, promote economic growth, and lower costs for Canadians.

We also cannot ignore that Alberta's frustration is palpable, and for good reason. Hockey and nostalgia might not be enough to keep us united. Premier Danielle Smith warned during the election that a Liberal win could spark an unprecedented national unity crisis if Carney doesn't undo certain Liberal policies within his first six months—policies that allegedly hinder Alberta's oil and gas sector.

But is Alberta asking for too much? The demands are as long as my arm, including guaranteeing Alberta full pipeline access to oil and gas corridors to the north, east, and west, repealing Bill C-69 (aka. “no new pipelines act”), lifting the tanker ban off the BC coast, eliminating the oil and gas emissions cap, which is a production cap, scrapping the so-called Clean Electricity Regulations, abandoning the net-zero car mandate, returning oversight of the industrial carbon tax to the provinces, and halting the federal censorship of energy companies. Smith cannot expect to get it all, and there likely needs to be a middle ground between Province and Country.

How Did the Conservatives Get It So Wrong?

The conservative boom to bust seems crazy. From an outside-in perspective, the Conservatives did not pivot fast enough away from Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and react to Trump’s threats of the 51st state and tariffs. Trump's influence created unity as the central issue, and Carney did a good job rallying voters against Trump, positioning himself as the defender of Canadian interests.

Carney also focused on the bigger picture, including trade and economic issues, almost dismissing Poilievre’s candidacy, while the Conservatives focused on tactical domestic issues that Canadians were just not interested in. Furthermore, the collapse of the NDP bolstered the Liberals to victory—the Conservatives ultimately came away with more votes and seats than any CPC leader or campaign since Mulroney in 1988, but it was too little to late.

From a strategy execution perspective, Pierre Poilievre ran a negative campaign, constantly criticizing the Liberals, versus a positive campaign focused on how we make Canada great again. We are not the U.S., and Canada does not it appears want hardcore populism. Clearly, the momentum is there for the Conservatives, particularly with young people, but the other forces at play were just too strong this time around.

A New Era of Leadership with Unanswered Questions.

Will Carney outshine Trudeau in the grand scheme of things? Absolutely! Carney brings a wealth of experience, deep economic insight, and sharp business acumen. He steps into the role with a strong sense of Canadian pride and a fierce determination to stand up to the U.S., ensuring Canada remains a free and prosperous nation. However, will he strike the right balance between unleashing the Canadian economy and remaining true to his green values? This remains to be seen.

By Dr. Lance Mortlock – Strategist, Adjunct Associate Professor & Author of Outside In, Inside Out – Unleashing the Power of Business Strategy in Times of Market Uncertainty